Mosfet transistor inventor11/28/2023 ![]() The advent of metal–oxide–semiconductor (MOS) technology.He outlined several contributing factors for this exponential behavior: Īt the 1975 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting, Moore revised his forecast rate, predicting semiconductor complexity would continue to double annually until about 1980, after which it would decrease to a rate of doubling approximately every two years. Evidence from the semiconductor industry shows that this inverse relationship between power density and areal density broke down in the mid-2000s. ![]() Dennard at IBM recognized the rapid MOSFET scaling technology and formulated what became known as Dennard scaling, which describes that as MOS transistors get smaller, their power density stays constant such that the power use remains in proportion with area. In a 2015 interview, Moore noted of the 1965 article: ".I just did a wild extrapolation saying it's going to continue to double every year for the next 10 years." One historian of the law cites Stigler's law of eponymy, to introduce the fact that the regular doubling of components was known to many working in the field. Moore posited a log-linear relationship between device complexity (higher circuit density at reduced cost) and time. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Within his editorial, he speculated that by 1975 it would be possible to contain as many as 65,000 components on a single quarter-square-inch (~1.6 square-centimeter) semiconductor. His response was a brief article entitled "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits". In 1965, Gordon Moore, who at the time was working as the director of research and development at Fairchild Semiconductor, was asked to contribute to the thirty-fifth anniversary issue of Electronics magazine with a prediction on the future of the semiconductor components industry over the next ten years. Engelbart presented his findings at the 1960 International Solid-State Circuits Conference, where Moore was present in the audience. In 1959, Douglas Engelbart studied the projected downscaling of integrated circuit (IC) size, publishing his results in the article "Microelectronics, and the Art of Similitude". In September 2022 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang considered Moore's law dead, while Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger was of the opposite view. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advancement has slowed industry-wide since around 2010, slightly below the pace predicted by Moore's law. Industry experts have not reached a consensus on exactly when Moore's law will cease to apply. These ongoing changes in digital electronics have been a driving force of technological and social change, productivity, and economic growth. Advancements in digital electronics, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted microprocessor prices, the increase in memory capacity ( RAM and flash), the improvement of sensors, and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras, are strongly linked to Moore's law. ![]() Moore's prediction has been used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development, thus functioning to some extent as a self-fulfilling prophecy. While Moore did not use empirical evidence in forecasting that the historical trend would continue, his prediction held since 1975 and has since become known as a "law". In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%. The observation is named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel (and former CEO of the latter), who in 1965 posited a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit, and projected this rate of growth would continue for at least another decade. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production. Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. ![]() Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years.
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